Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Washington Post-ABC News Poll

Even the poll data that her staff is trumpeting ("Her new campaign wasted no time yesterday sending an e-mail message about a new Washington Post-ABC poll giving Mrs. Clinton a 24 percentage point lead over her closest rival, Mr. Obama.") has plenty of bad news.  While this poll among Dems looks good:
 
NET LEANED VOTE:

                         1/19/07     12/11/06
Hillary Clinton            41           39
Barack Obama               17           17
John Edwards               11           12
John Kerry                  8            7
Al Gore                    10           10

 
...the poll of ALL voters shows why I think she's unelectable:
 
            ------ Favorable ------   ----- Unfavorable -----       No  
            NET  Strongly  Somewhat   NET  Somewhat  Strongly    opinion
1/19/07     54      31        23      44      14        30          3
  

Those unfavorables are REALLY high and entrenched -- 2/3 are strongly unfavorable -- and only 3% of people don't have an opinion.
 
Obama, in contrast, has a much better favorable/unfavorable ratio AND has a lot of opportunity to convert the "no opinion" and "somewhat unfavorable" people.
 
            ------ Favorable ------   ----- Unfavorable -----       No  
            NET  Strongly  Somewhat   NET  Somewhat  Strongly    opinion
1/19/07     45      NA        NA      29      NA        NA         25
12/11/06    44      21        22      23      17         6         33
 
Finally, the poll shows that in a hypothetical match-up of Hillary vs. Giuliani or McCain, she beats both of them.  Obama doesn't do quite as well, beating McCain and losing to Giuliani, but he's not nearly as well known.
------------------------

Washington Post-ABC News Poll

The Washington Post
Saturday, Jan. 20, 2006

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone January 16-19, 2007, among a random national sample of 1,000 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

*= less than 0.5 percent

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_012007.htm

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