Sunday, February 10, 2008

Another comment from a friend

Another friend with some comments:

Hillary is becoming the Rudy Giuliani of the Democratic Party in two ways:

First, in virtually every state she starts with a big lead but as people get to know her, the lead shrinks and then evaporates.

Second, if the notes below are true then she is trying to throw a ‘Hail Mary” pass late in the game by seeking to win later states after largely conceding earlier states.  It didn’t work for Rudy and it won’t work for Hillary.

Winning builds momentum.  The next several wins will make the later states easier for Obama to win.

What Super Tuesday really proved is that Obama is no longer a long shot but a legitimate contender and odds-on favorite.  No surprise, therefore, that his fundraising is accelerating.

A big problem for Hillary: she gives dull, uninspiring speeches.  No zip, no pow, no real pizzazz.  She’s a policy wonk/nerd with some personality while her husband is a huge personality with an interest in policy --- a very big difference.  And, as noted, the more people get to know here the less they like her.

Hillary’s campaigning and speech-giving must drive a virtuoso like Bill crazy.  He must still be screaming, at least internally: “Step aside, put me in coach!”

P.S. I know one of the McCain fundraisers who two months ago was calling donors and cold-calling people.  Now there are no outgoing calls and the phone rings 10 to 12 hours a day with donors seeking to contribute.  Everyone placing their bets while it still seems to matter in the hopes he’ll remember them.  Obama must be experiencing the same phenomenon...

[The same friend with comments about Obama vs. McCain:]  But for McCain, winning only about 20% of the conservatives and evangelical Christians who are cantankerous enough to sit it out is a lot more damaging than Obama’s losing states where they will vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is almost regardless off what the candidate does or says.  African-Americans are also a big factor in those states and Obama will attract them effortlessly while McCain, absent a Huckabee, will be working hard to attract what should be his core constituency.  Obama will have a secure core base and be able to focus on Independents and moderate Republicans while McCain will still be seeking to win over his own base and get them to vote.  Advantage: Obama.

Being tall, good-looking, intelligent and Presidential are all big pluses as well.  Advantage: Obama.

McCain will need Huckabee to have a chance to win --- Huckabee to me is a freakish mutation of both the far right and the far left --- a Baptist preacher who believes in big government --- God help us!


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