Forman's analysis
James Forman with his usual trenchant analysis:
How did he trounce Clinton in VA, a state that 3 days ago she thought she might win, where Bill and she barnstormed in all weekend? How did he turn it around with Latinos, with working class folks, with women? How did he turn a Clinton edge with blacks in December into 90% black support today? (To digress, this is a point worth remembering; as my friend Christian told me yesterday; all the media nonsense about how blacks of course support Obama ignores the fact that every single poll in 2007 showed Clinton beating Obama among blacks. If the support is reflexively there, how to explain that? It is not like black people didn't know Obama was black in 2007. As Chris Rock says, Barack Obama isn't a name that sneak ups on you with its blackness.)
The answer I think is pretty straightforward and I've argued it before. The more time Obama has to introduce himself to voters, the more they like him, trust him, believe he can win. That's why you see the poll numbers shift so quickly in his favor once he has time to campaign in a state.
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Spin Check, Feb. 13, 2008
Yesterday I sent out an email discussing the increasingly ridiculous and contradictory spin that the Clintons are using to keep up with the election defeats. Now we have new stuff. Brief recap: massive Obama wins in states with a lot of black voters don't count (black voters, being "strong and proud," only support black candidates), massive Obama wins in states with no black voters don't count (those are red states that the Dems won't win anyway), massive Obama wins in caucus states don't count (caucuses are dominated by party activists, unless the caucus takes place in Nevada, in which case they reflect the will of the people), Michigan and Florida results don't count, by agreement of all the parties (unless Clinton wins, in which case they do count).
And then came Virginia, MD and DC. Obama's win was comprehensive and included all of the demographics that were Clinton's base: he won Latinos, he won the working class, he won women, he split the white vote, he won independents and Democrats, he won people who go to church all the time and occasionally and people who don't know what a church looks like. See for yourself: exit polls are here for VA http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#VADEM and here for MD
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#MDDEM. These results severely undermine the current Clinton case for electability. (Mark Penn, Clinton pollster in chief, said on the Hillary website on Feb. 11: "And Hillary's core voters - working class, women, Latinos, Catholics - are exactly the voters that comprise the key swing voters the party has needed in the past to win.")
All this happened in one state that, per Clinton, Dems have to win in Nov. (MD) and another that, they could win and if they did would change the whole electoral map (VA). VA has a Democratic Senator and Governor. It is "purpling" to use the absurd term. Obama brought out massive numbers of energized voters to the polls, which is why he won, and why he could win it in November.
So how does Clinton discount these victories? None of the above explanations work, especially in light of how he won. So the new spin is to pretend it didn't happen. Off in Texas, Clinton gave a speech (I watched the whole thing) in which she didn't mention Obama or the 3 primaries that had just happened. Jim Fallows was offended by the gracelesness of not congratulating Obama, http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/i_was_feeling_sorry_for_hillar.php, but what about her voters and supporters? If I worked for her in those states, I would be pissed. Not even a shout out for the hard work?
Why is this happening? Why is Obama winning? How did he trounce Clinton in VA, a state that 3 days ago she thought she might win, where Bill and she barnstormed in all weekend? How did he turn it around with Latinos, with working class folks, with women? How did he turn a Clinton edge with blacks in December into 90% black support today? (To digress, this is a point worth remembering; as my friend Christian told me yesterday; all the media nonsense about how blacks of course support Obama ignores the fact that every single poll in 2007 showed Clinton beating Obama among blacks. If the support is reflexively there, how to explain that? It is not like black people didn't know Obama was black in 2007. As Chris Rock says, Barack Obama isn't a name that sneak ups on you with its blackness.)
The answer I think is pretty straightforward and I've argued it before. The more time Obama has to introduce himself to voters, the more they like him, trust him, believe he can win. That's why you see the poll numbers shift so quickly in his favor once he has time to campaign in a state. Now that I've been on the road campaigning in 3 states, I can tell you that a lot of people don't pay attention till the campaign comes to their state, and when they do, and Clinton and Obama go out and talk to people head-to-head, Obama can close the deal. Those huge crowds matter; they are full of people trying to make up their mind, and his stump speech now is very persuasive. This is what I said in my post-Super Tuesday email, when I argued that Obamans should celebrate, not be glum. Time is now on his, and our, side.
That said, he's down 17% in polls in Ohio. He'll close that gap once he shows up in the state (see above), but we have to help make it happen. More details later, but for now, mark your calendars. The Gtown law, PDS, friends of James, and extended network posse is heading to Ohio for the weekend before March 4. You can join. Yes you can.
Updated Fun Facts (as of Feb. 13)
States Obama won with more than 60% of the vote:
Yesterday I sent out an email discussing the increasingly ridiculous and contradictory spin that the Clintons are using to keep up with the election defeats. Now we have new stuff. Brief recap: massive Obama wins in states with a lot of black voters don't count (black voters, being "strong and proud," only support black candidates), massive Obama wins in states with no black voters don't count (those are red states that the Dems won't win anyway), massive Obama wins in caucus states don't count (caucuses are dominated by party activists, unless the caucus takes place in Nevada, in which case they reflect the will of the people), Michigan and Florida results don't count, by agreement of all the parties (unless Clinton wins, in which case they do count).
And then came Virginia, MD and DC. Obama's win was comprehensive and included all of the demographics that were Clinton's base: he won Latinos, he won the working class, he won women, he split the white vote, he won independents and Democrats, he won people who go to church all the time and occasionally and people who don't know what a church looks like. See for yourself: exit polls are here for VA http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#VADEM and here for MD
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#MDDEM. These results severely undermine the current Clinton case for electability. (Mark Penn, Clinton pollster in chief, said on the Hillary website on Feb. 11: "And Hillary's core voters - working class, women, Latinos, Catholics - are exactly the voters that comprise the key swing voters the party has needed in the past to win.")
All this happened in one state that, per Clinton, Dems have to win in Nov. (MD) and another that, they could win and if they did would change the whole electoral map (VA). VA has a Democratic Senator and Governor. It is "purpling" to use the absurd term. Obama brought out massive numbers of energized voters to the polls, which is why he won, and why he could win it in November.
So how does Clinton discount these victories? None of the above explanations work, especially in light of how he won. So the new spin is to pretend it didn't happen. Off in Texas, Clinton gave a speech (I watched the whole thing) in which she didn't mention Obama or the 3 primaries that had just happened. Jim Fallows was offended by the gracelesness of not congratulating Obama, http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/i_was_feeling_sorry_for_hillar.php, but what about her voters and supporters? If I worked for her in those states, I would be pissed. Not even a shout out for the hard work?
Why is this happening? Why is Obama winning? How did he trounce Clinton in VA, a state that 3 days ago she thought she might win, where Bill and she barnstormed in all weekend? How did he turn it around with Latinos, with working class folks, with women? How did he turn a Clinton edge with blacks in December into 90% black support today? (To digress, this is a point worth remembering; as my friend Christian told me yesterday; all the media nonsense about how blacks of course support Obama ignores the fact that every single poll in 2007 showed Clinton beating Obama among blacks. If the support is reflexively there, how to explain that? It is not like black people didn't know Obama was black in 2007. As Chris Rock says, Barack Obama isn't a name that sneak ups on you with its blackness.)
The answer I think is pretty straightforward and I've argued it before. The more time Obama has to introduce himself to voters, the more they like him, trust him, believe he can win. That's why you see the poll numbers shift so quickly in his favor once he has time to campaign in a state. Now that I've been on the road campaigning in 3 states, I can tell you that a lot of people don't pay attention till the campaign comes to their state, and when they do, and Clinton and Obama go out and talk to people head-to-head, Obama can close the deal. Those huge crowds matter; they are full of people trying to make up their mind, and his stump speech now is very persuasive. This is what I said in my post-Super Tuesday email, when I argued that Obamans should celebrate, not be glum. Time is now on his, and our, side.
That said, he's down 17% in polls in Ohio. He'll close that gap once he shows up in the state (see above), but we have to help make it happen. More details later, but for now, mark your calendars. The Gtown law, PDS, friends of James, and extended network posse is heading to Ohio for the weekend before March 4. You can join. Yes you can.
Updated Fun Facts (as of Feb. 13)
States Obama won with more than 60% of the vote:
Alaska (over 70%)
Colorado
District of Columbia (over 70%)
Georgia
Idaho (over 70%)
Illinois
Kansas (over 70%)
Minnesota
Nebraska
North Dakota
Washington
Virginia
Arkansas
That's it.
posted by Whitney Tilson at 9:43 AM
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