Electoral math

From a McCain supporter friend on the grim Electoral College math for McCain (responding to the map I linked to in my last email: www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html):

Yea.....  I've been focused on this for a month.... McCain has a problem because of the exodus from California to Colorado.  Colorado is turning blue...  I'm convinced McCain will win Ohio.  I'm convinced he'll win VA.  But even in the Palin surge, the spread in CO remained 2% for Obama... if McCain doesn't win there he's toast because I just don't see him winning Michigan or PA.....  If McCain wins all the states I assume....and I'm reasonably assurred of this....  it will leave him 10 electoral votes shy..... Colorado has 9.  So no matter how he slices it....McCain MUST win two of those in-play states.....   Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico.......Obama leads in all four....  This all assumes that Obama holds states like MN which is as Blue as France.....  Michigan which is as Blue as Spain....  and PA which is as Blue as Germany....  If McCain somehow busts through in one of those Blue then he probably wins....  Were I McCain, I'd be doing my bitter guns and religion best out in the rural heart of those three.....