Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Reasons for a landslide

I recently predicted that "Obama wins in a landslide on Tuesday, by wider margins than generally expected, thanks to the remarkable ground game, fueled by hundreds of thousands of highly motived volunteers."  There are three other reasons why I think Obama will win by more than the generally predicted 6 points: A) The unprecedented turnout by new, young and black voters who are inspired and motivated by Obama; B) Most polls don't call cell phones, which means they're missing a disproportionate number of these voters (polls that do call cell phones show an extra 4 points for Obama); and C) Given that a big Obama victory is widely anticipated, I think there are quite a few voters who will vote for him when they otherwise might not because, knowing a vote against him won't matter, they want to feel good about themselves, be part of history, tell their children and grandchildren that they voted for a black candidate, etc.


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