Thoughts from Jeremy Goldberg

1) Below are some wise thoughts from my friend Jeremy Goldberg:

It's a victory for Barack Obama tonight if it's a win or a draw.  The 22 states on Feb 5 presented a huge advantage for Hillary--she benefited from the national name recognition and the presumptive status as the nominee.  If she doesn't come out ahead, I think her campaign is in trouble.  My reasoning:

So far, it's looking like a draw, but this would be a win for Obama.  Another friend writes:

Obama won a majority of white males in GEORGIA!  Hillary wins tonight with Latino votes, but Obama has momentum and a nuch of easy wins in the next two weeks.  Unstoppable now. 

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Hi everyone:

Sorry about the radio silence...I've been so busy in the campaign that I haven't had the opportunity to write about the campaign.  I did think it was worth sending a few observations before the results start rolling into tonight.

It's a victory for Barack Obama tonight if it's a win or a draw.  The 22 states on Feb 5 presented a huge advantage for Hillary--she benefited from the national name recognition and the presumptive status as the nominee.  If she doesn't come out ahead, I think her campaign is in trouble.  My reasoning:

• After tonight, the campaign returns to a limited number of contests at a time.  That presents a huge advantage to Obama, who can direct his massive volunteer operation to specific states.  It also lets him swoop in and have major events throughout the state---something that proved difficult when his time was spread over 22 states and forced him to rely on advertising.
• Obama enjoys a huge resource advantage--one that is likely to grow.  In January alone, he had 250,000 donors and raised $32 million...that compares to $13 million for Hillary. He has over 600,000 donors, the majority of whom are not maxed out (many are under $100) and he can cheaply (e.g. email) tap into this group for additional gifts.  This compares to Hillary, who has relied largely on bigger gifts.
• The next states up offer Obama a chance to build momentum...Next Saturday are two caucus states (Washington and Nebraska) which favors Obama's volunteer organization, and Louisiana, with a large African American population.  Then comes the Maine caucus, with Obama favored, and  Virginia, Maryland and DC on February 12th, where he is favored.  That leaves Clinton with a last stand in Ohio and Texas.  I think it'll be difficult if he comes off those two strong weeks.
  

Thoughts about tonight...

• Where do the Edwards voters go?  Obama appears to have the momentum, and if CA is close, or if Obama wins, it means that many of those Edwards voters swung to him (making the assumption that Hillary enjoyed a large advantage of absentee ballots that he had to overcome).  Another place to look would be in the South, in places like Tennessee and Georgia.  Where do the white, rural voters go?  Obama's dramatic movement in the national polls suggest to me that he's been the beneficiary of Edwards' supporters...it seems that Hillary has a ceiling of support--people who were going to vote for had already decided to do so.
  
• Can Obama peel off some of Hillary's hold on the Northeast?  It appears that New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts are all in play--if Obama wins won of those, it would be a major reversal of a longtime Hillary lead...and suggests a big night.
• The proportional system makes it difficult for anyone to pull away.  As an example, I've been working in a district much of the day in Manhattan.  If Hillary gets less than 59% of the vote, then she and Obama will each get three delegates...Obama may have a large advantage if he can run up the score in Illinois and he can keep the delegate count close in New York.
• How does Obama do with the Latino vote?  Does he benefit from Ted Kennedy's endorsement?  The more people get to know Obama, the more they like him--true of Latinos as well if his Illinois Senate race is an indication.  This may be particularly important if McCain earns the nomination--he'll face a choice: does he tout his immigration reform stance and earn Latino support, or does he run right and shore up his base by emphasizing enforcement.
• Traditional vs Movement politics.  Hillary's campaign is a traditional one, focusing on the endorsement of community leaders and local politicians, who are often on the payroll and expected to turn out votes.  Obama's campaign is based on a movement model (based on Marshall Ganz's work).  I saw it in action in South Carolina, and it involved hundreds and hundreds of volunteers who worked for many months to develop relationships with one another and with their community.  Do people listen to their neighbors, or their pastor or city council rep?  In South Carolina, this volunteer machinery led to a huge turnout and a large margin of victory.  Today in NYC, you have hundreds of volunteers working throughout the city, while I received an email from a Hillary coordinator who was offering money to their volunteers.  As the results come in, you'll be able to see which approach is working...I'd also suggest that Obama's movement approach requires more time and resources, making it a more difficult strategy to employ on Feb 5 with 22 states voting.  If you see big victories in Georgia and Minnesota, you can attribute that to the organization they've built--many SC folks went to GA, and the Iowa folks went to Minnesota.