Friday, September 26, 2008

Obama moving into electoral lead

Some great news from the polls:

Obama moving into electoral lead

 
  

State by state, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill). is showing signs of breaking open a presidential race that looked deadlocked through much of September.

A new wave of polls released Wednesday showed decisive leads for Obama in the critical states of Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

That follows noticeable progress in polls in Virginia, which had looked safe for Sen. John McCain, and Florida, which had looked promising for McCain.

This is the first time that one of the candidates has dominated state polls in the most closely contested battlegrounds.

Republican strategist Karl Rove had predicted this tectonic shift, writing at Rove.com earlier this week: "[I]f the movement toward Obama in national polls continue to percolate down to the states, we could see an Obama lead later this week."

Wisconsin is the most closely fought battleground where McCain has made noticeable progress. Polls show that Obama is still ahead, but he has not put away the Badger State, as some had expected.

Opinion Research polls for Time magazine and CNN released Wednesday showed:

— Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 45 among registered voters. In late August, McCain had been ahead, 49 to 44. Among likely voters, Obama led in the new poll by 51 to 47.

— Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 44 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 51 to 46.

— Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 43 among registered voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads 53 to 44.

In summary, the campaigns agree that since the conventions:

Obama has gained in Florida, Virginia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Indiana and New Mexico.

McCain gained in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Alaska and North Dakota.

Both campaigns claim gains in Iowa.

Ohio remains a toss-up —perhaps the decisive prize. Nevada and New Hampshire are too close to call.

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