Before we get too complacent, here's an article about how McCain could win:

Mr. McCain’s advisers said the key to victory was reeling back those Republican states where Mr. Obama has them on the run: Florida, where Mr. McCain spent Thursday; Indiana; Missouri; North Carolina; Ohio; and Virginia. If he can hang on to all those states as well as others that are reliably red, he would put into his column 260 of the 270 electoral votes necessary to win. Mr. McCain’s advisers said they would look for the additional electoral votes they need either by taking Pennsylvania from the Democrats, or putting together some combination of Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Mr. McCain’s advisers are most concerned about Virginia, and understandably so. On the other side of the coin, Mr. McCain’s advisers believe that if he wins or comes close in Pennsylvania, he will probably win in Ohio and Florida. Aides to Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama agree that Mr. McCain remains very much in the game in Ohio and Florida. Not easy, but not impossible either...

“Complacency is a big concern of ours, and that’s why we’re going to campaign energetically from start to finish here,” David Axelrod, the chief strategist to Mr. Obama said in an interview. “We don’t want anybody to think that this thing is done — it’s not done. One of the things that can undo us is if people believe that.”

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In McCain’s Uphill Battle, Winning Is an Option

By ADAM NAGOURNEY

Published: October 23, 2008

www.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/us/politics/24mccain.html

MIAMI — Senator John McCain woke Thursday morning to what has become a fairly common greeting in these tough last weeks of his campaign. A raft of polls showing him well behind. Early post-mortems on his candidacy. Even Republicans speaking of him in the past tense.

But is it really over?

As Mr. McCain enters this closing stretch, his aides — as well as some outside Republicans and even a few Democrats — argue that he still has a viable path to victory.

“The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush one week before the election of 2000,” said Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain’s chief strategist. “We have ground to make up, but we believe we can make it up.”

The latest New York Times/CBS News poll, released Thursday, showed Senator Barack Obama consolidating his lead over Mr. McCain among many groups of voters, underscoring the degree of difficulty facing the McCain team with just 11 days left in the campaign.