Iowa Electronic Markets

Holy cow -- check out the Iowa Electronic Markets, which show Obama now 70% likely to win the nomination vs. 23% for Sen. Clinton!  And McCain's now up to 43% with Rudy falling to 25%.  (See charts at the bottom of this email)

 

One friend asked:

How can you short the Republicans?  They’re going to get creamed in November with Obama and no strong candidate of their own.

I agree.  I think their best hope, frankly, is to draft Bloomberg (see article on him, below).  The answer is that you can also bet on which party's candidate will win the general election on the Iowa Electronics Market -- see http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/Pres08.html.  The chart showing the current odds is below (63%, up a bit since the Obama juggernaut started rolling, as the market is correctly seeing that Obama will be a much tougher candidate for the Republicans to beat).

 

Democratic nomination chart: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_DConv08.cfm

 

Republican nomination chart: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_RConv08.cfm

 

Which party wins the Presidency chart: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm