Tuesday, January 08, 2008

S. Carolina poll

Wow -- in three weeks, Obama has moved up 22 points on Sen. Clinton to a commanding 50%-30% lead in South Carolina!
Eve of NEW HAMPSHIRE Primary, Obama now 20 points atop Clinton in SOUTH CAROLINA: In a South Carolina Democratic Primary today, 01/07/08, 19 days to the vote, Barack Obama defeats Hillary Clinton 50% to 30%, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCSC-TV Charleston and WSPA-TV Greenville. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll completed 3 weeks ago, before Christmas and before the Iowa Caucuses, when Clinton and Obama were effectively tied, Obama is up 11 points, Clinton is down 11 points, a 22-point swing. John Edwards is unchanged, 17% on 12/19/07 and 16% today. There is across-the board movement away from Clinton to Obama. Among women: Clinton had led by 17 points, now trails by 14 points. Among blacks, Obama had led by 20 points, now leads by 46. Among white voters, Obama had been 3rd, is now 2nd, tied with Edwards, the two of them 9 and 10 points back of Clinton. Among Moderates, Obama was tied, now leads by 23. Among voters age 65+, Clinton had been at 61% a month ago, 40% today. In the Low Country, Clinton had led by 13, now trails by 16. Upstate, Obama had been tied, now leads by 16. In the Midlands, Obama had led by 5, now leads by 26. South Carolina Democrats name the Economy as the issue the next President should focus on ahead of all others. Among voters focused on the Economy, Obama leads Clinton 2:1. Among voters focused on Health Care, Clinton leads Obama 41% to 37%. Click on the "Triangle T" to access SurveyUSA's interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive.
Obama's surge in South Carolina is driven by a huge increase in black voters, who now favor Obama 69%-23% there.  Here's a comment from a (black) friend on this:
Remember after the speeches in Selma when I emailed you to tell you that Obama would win the overwhelming majority of the black vote?  For months I couldn't figure out why what seemed so clear to me was not being reflected in the polls.  Well, it is finally happening, mainly because people are: 1) paying attention, 2) believing he is viable, and 3) realizing that Hillary has none of Bill's ability to connect on a cultural/personal/rhetorical level with black folks.  In fact, one civil rights leader who has met all the leading candidates told me that, "I have met every president since Kennedy and none came close to Bill Clinton in terms of his ability to connect to regular black people.  And none seemed as uncomfortable as Hillary Clinton."


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