Thoughts on last night's results

1) I've been hearing some sounds of disappointment from Obama supporters, but I disagree totally.  Yesterday was a huge step forward for Obama.  Only a week ago, a decisive Clinton victory appeared likely, given how much Super Tuesday favored her.  Yet yesterday Obama won 13 states (probably 14, depending on New Mexico, where he has a 49-48 lead with 92% of the vote counted) vs. only 8 states for Clinton!

 

Critically, Obama won red states by a margin of more than 2-1, further reinforcing his unique ability to reshape the electoral map.  He also demonstrated great strength among white voters and took 82% of black voters.

 

In terms of total delegates won, excluding super delegates, he's leading 696 to 689.  Even including super delegates, it's basically a dead heat, with Clinton leading 900 to 824.  In the next six days, seven more states will vote and things look very good for Obama in all seven:

Saturday, February 9^th

Louisiana Primary awards 66 delegates

Nebraska Caucuses award 31 delegates

Washington Caucuses 97 delegates

Sunday, February 10^th

Maine Caucuses award 34 delegates 

Tuesday, February 12^th (the Potomac Primary)

Maryland Primary awards 99 delegates

Virginia Primary awards 101 delegates

D.C. Primary awards 38 delegates

2) Here is one friend's spot-on take on things:

It seems like Hillary had a good night, but this game is way closer to being over than it seems:

- Hispanic voters carried her and they aren't a factor going forward

- The calendar favors Obama now - he is ahead in the next seven contests in a row

- He has way more money (and more pouring in)

- He does better in smaller contests with lots of local contact

- Time is on his side

By the time we get to Ohio or Texas (the Clinton firewall states), there will have been a drumbeat of Obama victories eating away at her and he will be leading in delegates.

As for the general, it could be a landslide. Bush barely beat Kerry, and that was with Evangelicals waiting for hours in the rain to vote for him. They hate McCain and Obama is no John Kerry.

I think that only a debate disaster could derail him now.

3) Below are a handful of articles from around the country on yesterday's results.

 

4) Obama is surging today in the Iowa Electronic Markets (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html), up from 40% to 47% -- still a buy, as Clinton is at 52%.

 

5) James Forman is calling on volunteers to join him in DC -- see below.

Now it is time to build on the momentum . . . .

When my mom and I joined over 10,000 other out of state volunteers in South Carolina 10 days ago we were following a well worn path--folks from the north called south by a cause.  When we arrived at the hotel, the first people we ran into were a couple of young guys from Mississippi.   I remember thinking what an unusual thing it was--normally people go to Mississippi to fight for change and justice, and here they were traveling from Mississippi to do the same.  This election has called into question everything that we had long taken for granted, so let's challenge one more . . . .

Instead of folks leaving DC to go lend a hand somewhere else, why don't all my friends come to DC to help us? 

---------------------

Obama/Speech: AP (Nedra Pickler) “Obama Vows to Change Washington”: Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama cast his chain of Super Tuesday wins as evidence that voters want someone who can change Washington and appeal to voters of both parties in the general election. "We can do this! We can do this," Obama told supporters after collecting a string of wins that included his home state of Illinois as well as Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia and Utah, as well as caucuses in North Dakota, Minnesota, Kansas and Idaho. "We are the hope for the future," he said, "the answer to the cynics who tell us our house must stand divided." … "It's a choice between having a debate with the other party about who has the most experience in Washington or about who can change Washington," Obama said. "Because that's a debate that we can win." LINK

Obama/Outlook: Washington Post (Alec MacGillis) “On a Mission to Translate Belief Into Reality”: The crowds boggle the mind, and the fervor verges on the religious: "We believe!" the 17,000 people jamming Hartford's civic center started chanting Monday. There were 13,000 in Boise, lining up in the cold at daybreak in a state where only 5,000 voted in the Democratic caucuses four years ago. And 20,000 converging on a downtown square in Wilmington, Del., on Super Bowl Sunday, like nothing that small city had seen in years. There is, without doubt, a nationwide wave building behind Sen. Barack Obama, one given new life by his win in South Carolina 10 days ago, his forceful victory speech and the Kennedy family endorsements that followed, and his campaign's record-shattering fundraising last month. But the Super Tuesday primaries offered a reminder of the distance Obama must yet travel and the time he needs -- but might not have -- to translate the euphoria of packed basketball arenas into hard numbers at the voting booth. LINK

Obama/Momentum Continues: New York Daily News (Errol Louis) “Time is on Barack Obama's side as his momentum grows”: Coast to coast, everywhere you looked, the Democratic presidential candidates - and more importantly, the voters - shattered stereotypes and defied conventional wisdom. Barack Obama, who was criticized by Hillary Clinton's supporters as the "black" candidate with little cross-racial appeal, won caucuses in some of the whitest states imaginable - Utah, Minnesota, Idaho, North Dakota and Kansas - along with largely black Georgia and Alabama. LINK

Obama/Clinton/Feb 5: USA Today (Richard Wolf) “'Bragging rights' go to both Dems”: The Democratic presidential race between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama sprinted through 22 states Tuesday and emerged as it was before: deadlocked. Clinton was the projected winner in the biggest state, California, and also had victories in her home state of New York and neighboring New Jersey. She showed strength in "red" states by winning in Oklahoma, Tennessee and Arkansas, and in states with large Hispanic populations such as Arizona. Obama struck back by winning in 12 of the 22 states up for grabs, including the six holding voter-intensive caucuses rather than primaries. He won in all parts of the country, from Connecticut and Delaware to Utah and Idaho, along with his home state of Illinois. He won the Deep South states of Georgia and Alabama by huge margins. LINK

Obama/Youth Vote: L.A. Times (Tim Rutten) “The good generation gap”: It will be a while before the pollsters tease the full story of Tuesday's quasi-national primary out of their exit surveys. It's already possible, however, to discern a cause for optimism in the reemergence of what we used to call "the generation gap." At first blush, that's a counter- intuitive reaction, but consider this: In recent years, a good bit of our system's cripplingly bitter partisanship could be attributed to the drift by growing numbers of Democrats into identity politics -- aligning by race or ethnicity -- and by the movement of more Republicans toward confessional politics -- that is, into the religious right. LINK

------------------

From James Forman:

Going to bed.  Latest from Kos is that Obama has won minimum 11 out of 22 states.  Pretty sweet given how far back he was as of 10 days ago, how electoral map, name recognition and compressed schedule favored Clinton, etc. 

Now it is time to build on the momentum . . . .

When my mom and I joined over 10,000 other out of state volunteers in South Carolina 10 days ago we were following a well worn path--folks from the north called south by a cause.  When we arrived at the hotel, the first people we ran into were a couple of young guys from Mississippi.   I remember thinking what an unusual thing it was--normally people go to Mississippi to fight for change and justice, and here they were traveling from Mississippi to do the same.  This election has called into question everything that we had long taken for granted, so let's challenge one more . . . .

Instead of folks leaving DC to go lend a hand somewhere else, why don't all my friends come to DC to help us?  The primaries in DC, MD and Virginia are going to be hugely important.  They are a week from today, and are ones in which Obama is likely to do well, but will be hard fought.  Over 200 delegates are at stake.  The local ground operations are good, with offices in Prince Georges County, Northern  VA and DC, as well as further out areas like Richmond and Baltimore.  Events are scheduled all around the city and the region for every day between now and Tuesday (including Roger Wilkins and Ron Walters and me speaking at Ebenezer A.M.E Church in Ft. Washington on Sat.).

Obama will surely make a couple of appearances, and that's always a can't-miss opportunity (not sure when or where he'll be speaking, so don't ask me about that).  They are the only primaries, so they'll get lots of attentions from the candidates and the momentum will be strong if we can pull it off.

The most pressing need now is volunteers; we need folks to canvass, phone bank, and get out the vote.  Obama supporters are passionate, we know this.  Passion and energy are what closed the huge Clinton lead (remember how depressed you were in the summer when she was up 30% in all the polls and was the inevitable candidate and you couldn't figure out why nobody could see what you saw?).  Passion and energy are why we can still win.  So bring some of that passion here.  Come for a day, a weekend, or the whole week between now and next Tuesday.  The DC, VA and MD offices all have work to do.

I am confident that we can find places to stay among the strong network of local Obamans.  We will all open our homes.  Ify and I will put up as many as we can fit.  And of course, there are tons of hotels if you want to go that route.

Get on the bus, plane, train, walk.  Bring your kids.  We need you.  (And we'll have a blast.)

Email back if you can make it . . . . Or call 202-445-7787.

P.S. A buddy of mine, 20 years old, just said he is coming from England for 5 days to campaign because he is so fired up.  Your trip probably won't be that far.